Bayh is one of those Senators who has an outstanding profile for a presidential candidate. He came into political office as the son of a prominent senator from his home state of Indiana. He ran for governor and was a successful two-term governor. He then ran for and was elected to the United States Senate. In the last three elections he has apparently been on the short list of potential Democratic nominees for vice president.
He is a fairly moderate senator from a state that normally leans Republican. He has managed to win there by taking more moderate positions on economic issues than the rest of his party. He has frequently been an advocate of responsible fiscal policy and controlling government spending. These positions are frequently set him apart from the rest of his party, particularly Democrats in Congress.
Still, it was a surprise today when he said he was through. He cited the excessive partisanship in Washington DC as the reason for his retirement. He noted that partisanship prevents anything substantive from getting done.
The way he is going out, sending warning about excessive partisanship along with a responsible fiscal record makes me wonder if we have seen the last of Evan Bayh. Let's fast forward ahead to 2012. I will say at the very beginning that incumbent presidents generally when renomination even in the face of relatively strong challenges from within their party. Jimmy Carter fought off the icon of Democratic liberalism Ted Kennedy in 1980. Gerald Ford held off the icon of Republican conservatism, Ronald Reagan, in 1976. Beating an incumbent president for the party's nomination is difficult and rare.
Evan Bayh however may be very well positioned to do just that. Polls are showing that President Obama's popularity is sinking rapidly. The perception has arisen that his Administration is engaged in reckless spending and growth of big government at home and a weak foreign-policy abroad. Critics both within and without the Democratic Party have questioned his pursuit of health care reform ahead of jobs creation. Likewise, many responsible critics have questioned the effort to turn the war on terror into a criminal investigation and prosecution rather than a more. Finally, the Nobel Prize seems to be simply a taunt from the rest of the world and a punchline here at home.
Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors and democratic state legislators may become very concerned about their own electoral well-being in 2012. The prospect of an unpopular president Obama at the top of the ticket may begin to frighten them and they may discuss finding a candidate who can win.
What would be the alternatives within the Democratic Party to Barack Obama in 2012? By serving in the Cabinet, Hilary Clinton has effectively taken herself out of the running. She now takes ownership of the Obama administration's policies and would be perceived as extremely disloyal for running against him. She lacks any real credibility if she were to try and discount her role in the administration. The 22nd amendment prevents Bill Clinton from pulling a Teddy Roosevelt and trying to challenge one of his successors in a party primary. So who is there that could challenge Barack Obama?
Evan Bayh may be that person. A candidate with executive experience as a governor and a relatively fiscally conservative record as a senator. He hails from the Midwest, an area where Democrats need to win to break up the Reagan coalition and retain the White House. He is young, articulate and telegenic. It would be hard to dismiss him as a cook, a crank or an egomaniac for challenging the President within his own party.
This may be, and probably is, far-fetched but if you read sometime next year that Bayh is giving a speech in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, the White House should get very nervous.
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