The Yankees

Yesterday Mark Texeria agreed to a $180 million dollar, 8 year contract with the Yankees. Putting him in the same clubhouse with Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia, not to mention A.J. Burnett, now means that the guy who guards the clubhouse and protects the players wallets during games has the most dangerous job in the world.
The Yankees were not known to be in the running until about two days ago. Why did they sign Texeria? First, because they can. Second, to make sure Boston did not.
A 28 year old switch hitting, Gold Glove first baseman is something any team can use, so the deal makes sense from a baseball standpoint. The Yankees let Jason Giambi leave, so they needed a first baseman. Texeria and A-Rod make that a truly scary middle part of the order.
While it seems as though this deal continues baseball down the path of the rich getting richer, that does not necessarily mean New Yorkers should make World Series plans. The Yankees had the highest payroll in 2007 and finished third in the East. The team that won their division had a payroll roughly equal to the Yankees bullpen.
Baseball remains a sport where there are truly few individual difference makers. Yes, two nights a week the Yankees will have better pitching with Sabathia and Burnett, but what about the other three nights? Also, I am fairly certain those two will not win every time out. In the case of Burnett it is not even certain he will take the mound for all of his scheduled starts.
Texeria will go oh for four some nights. A-Rod will fail to hit in some games, even some that do not take place in October.
Baseball games are often won by the unexpected: the backup infielder who singles in a run in the 9th, the spot starter who tosses a shutout. Over the course of a season, success depends more on what you do not expect to happen than what you do. Did anyone think the young Tampa Bay Rays would suddenly grow up in 2007? In March did anyone expect Manny to be in a Dodger uniform by August? Did anybody expect the Cubs to collapse at the end...o.k. we all expected that.
Over the course of a 162 game season, it is the unexpected that makes the difference.
Will the Yankees three, four and five starters win enough games to put them in contention? Will Mariano Rivera avoid the aging process for another year? Will someone besides Texeria get a key hit to win a ballgame? That is what will determine the Yankees' success in 2009. Believe it or not, they are still going to play the games.
So, it is easy to assume that the Yankees will win the East but the expectations and the reality may be very different.