Inexact Science

Major League Baseball held its draft yesterday. The baseball draft is the least watched of all of the major sports. Fans do not paint there faces and go the arenas to watch the draft on television (that is probably a good thing) and the draftees do not appear on stage wearing $5000 suits in colors never before imagined.
The main difference is it will still be two to three years before most of the players drafted are playing in the majors. Assuming they sign in the next few weeks, they will likely go to a rookie league level team or possibly Class A ball, then begin working their way up. One, maybe two, of the high draftees may make a major league cameo in September, but that is rare.
The baseball draft is the most inexact science of all sports' drafts. In football, many of the players have already played on big stages against big time competition. Although basketball has had a flirtation with taking high school kids, seven feet tall is still seven feet tall no matter your age. In other words, football and basketball can reasonably project performance in the league. There are some busts and some late round surprises who have success, but for the most part success can be forecast on draft day.
Not so with baseball. Baseball drafts many more players. The N.B.A. draft is now two rounds. The N.F.L. draft is eight. The baseball draft is many more rounds. A bigger pool of players turns professional in a given year.
When they turn pro, there are big changes. For the position players they go from hitting with aluminum bats, to wood bats. Suddenly those 420 foot bombs on the high school or college field are long fly balls. Hitters struggle with the transition, and confidence gets shaken as a player goes from hitting .600 in high school ball to hitting .240 in the minors.
For the pitchers, suddenly they are facing the equivalent of their high school or college opponents clean up hitter every at bat. Some pitchers, especially at the high school level, find they can rely on one overpowering pitch to get through a lineup. Once they turn pro they have to start learning how to hit spots and out think the batters, something they have not had to do before. College pitchers have often spent years pitching away from contact (to avoid those rockets off of aluminum bats) and have to learn not to be afraid of contact.
Then there is the lifestyle change. Often the players are now far away from home with a group of new teammates. They are not the big man on campus that they were in high school or college. Unlike the N.F.L. or N.B.A., they are not flying first class and staying in five star hotels. It is long bus rides and motels. If they played for a big time college program, or even some high school and/or travel programs, the travel and accommodations of pro ball can be a step (or several) down.
With all of these factors working against success, the money payed high draftees is approaching the early salaries of N.B.A. and N.F.L. draftees. Teams are taking great risks. They are being asked to invest $5-10 million or even more in a player who may never see a big league stadium except when he buys a ticket. It is the most inexact science of all sports.