My favorite team

It's not the Dodgers, although they qualify as my favorite baseball team. It's the Clintons.
Let's go back a ways. 1992 blond bombshell shows up, says she had an affair with the Governor of Arkansas, Hillary jumps to his defense, finishes the New Hampshire primary as the comeback kid.
1998, affair with an intern producing the most memorable sound bite of that Administration ("I did not have..." I think you know the rest). Hillary jumps to his defense ("vast right wing conspiracy"). Stays in office, survives the scandal.
2000, getting ready to move out of the White House, faced with the prospect of losing power, Hillary, with help from Bill wins a Senate seat from New York establishing a new power base.
2008, Hillary loses the Democratic nomination, seemingly ending the Clinton dynasty. Barack Obama now appears to be ready to name her Secretary of State.
Is there anything that can stop these people? They are the indestructible force of American politics. Two Bushes have come and gone, yet the Clintons remain. Al Gore is making movies, yet the Clintons remain. Johnny Carson was hosting the Tonight Show when the Clintons first arrived on the national scene, Conan O'Brien takes over next year, the Clintons outlasted Jay Leno!
I do not agree with a lot of their politics, but I have to hand it to the Clintons: they have an amazing capacity for staying relevant and staying in power. As Secretary of State, Hillary will be on the world stage. Bill will globe trot at her side. They will be in our living rooms for another four years. America's longest running soap opera continues.
Think about it. The Adams' presidencies were 2o years apart. The Roosevelts were gone after twelve plus years. The Clintons have played a leading role in American politics for 16 years and it will be 20 by the next campaign. Also, I don't believe for a moment that Hillary has given up on being President, those "Hillary 2016" bumper stickers are in boxes somewhere.
They are America's longest running drama and possibly its most fascinating. I tip my hat to them.

Bailout

When I was in college I had a part time job. Nothing unusual about that, lots of people do that.
Occasionally I would go out for pizza with some buddies. Inevitably someone would be short on cash and ask me to cover their portion of the bill, usually saying "you have a job, you've got money coming in" as he shoved the last piece of pizza into his perfectly able body.
The proposed bailout of the auto companies feels a little like my college days. I have a job, I have money coming in so hand it over. In this case it is not even to help those who have lost jobs, it is to prevent the loss of jobs in companies that can no longer compete. Worse yet, the money will go to support pension and health benefits guaranteed by these companies to their unions. We, the taxpayers, have money coming in, they don't, so hand it over.
I hope Congress says no, but I fear they won't.
What will happen if there is no bailout? There will not suddenly be hundreds of thousands of people on the streets without jobs. The companies may file for bankruptcy. Through bankruptcy they will reorganize and downsize. They will be relieved of some of the more onerous terms of the contracts the signed with the unions.
Yes, jobs will be lost, but that is a fact of life. I am sorry for the people who will lose their jobs, but the American taxpayer should not become the guarantor of job security in failing industries. People can retrain, or relocate. These are people with skills, and there will always be a market for that.
Will they make the same amount of money and have the same benefits? No, but the American taxpayer cannot become the guarantor of employee wage and benefit levels.
The world is changing. We just elected a President on that very theme. If the world is changing, why are we going to spend billions of dollars trying to keep everything the same? The automobile companies have not changed, their unions have not backed down and now, to quote the President elect's former minister totally out of context: their "chickens are coming home to roost".
The only things for sure in life are death, taxes and the Cubs never winning the World Series. Everything else changes and evolves. Why are we spending billions to try and stop evolution?
Under what circumstances might a loan to the auto industry be acceptable? If it came with a strict requirement that none of the money would go to management or union compensation. If the money was used solely for research and development to design and build cars that people want i.e. fuel efficient and environmentally friendly. Before the money would be doled out, the automakers would have to show a business plan, tell us where they want to go before we invest. Under those limited circumstances I might support a loan to the automakers.
But to just keep doing what they have been doing? Sorry, I'm not going out for that pizza.

Winter Ball

Now that we have gotten through the Election, it is time to focus on what really matters: the winter moves of our favorite teams.
Here in LA the big story is Manny Ramirez. Will he be back? It is not looking good. The Dodgers made a two year offer, but Manny's agent seems to want six. Manny is 36 years old and already defensively challenged. While I do not doubt that Manny can hit into his 40s, the thought of a 42 year old Manny Ramirez trying to catch up to a ball hit towards the gap in left field ought to frighten any current or future Dodger pitcher. I say three years for Manny with maybe an option for a fourth, otherwise it was fun and enjoy New York.
The other big free agent is C.C. Sabathia with the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees and a few others supposedly having interest. The price tag is rumored to be in the 6 year $120 million range. I just don't get that. Yes, pitching wins championships, but the reality is a good starting pitchers only take the mound 35 times a year. 20 game winners are becoming a thing of the past, so the best produce 15-20 wins. Even that requires timely hitting and a good bullpen in the era of the six inning "quality start".
Also, does anyone honestly believe C.C. Sabathia will not have an injury in the next six years? I remember the Dodgers giving Kevin Brown a $100 million contract at age 34 and proudly bragging that he had never been on the disabled list, so they had no concerns about paying him through age 41. Brown promptly spent much of the next seven years on the disabled list.
A $100 million dollar investment in a pitcher just makes no sense unless you can get Congress to appropriate the funds (which they likely would do...oops overlapping topics again!).
As the winter progresses we will enjoy the game of musical chairs played by our favorite players. Someone will lose out on a free agent that they want and try to make up for it by giving a second tier free agent first tier money (hello, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe). We will hear some player say he had to change teams because the $50 million he was offered by his former team was not enough and he has to "take care of my family". Someone else will announce that it is "not about the money, but about getting to the World Series", probably as he signs with the Texas Rangers.
Yes, winter ball is here.

Reality Setting In

It's over. Two years and a few hundred million dollars later, Barack Obama is the President-elect of the United States. The Democratic Party will have large majorities in the House and Senate.
I cannot say that I am surprised. I do not want to diminish the Democrats win, but I cannot help but think the country really fired the Republican Party.
So where does everyone go from here?
For the Democrats it will be absolute control. With absolute control will come accountability. I am sure there will be Democrats who will try to blame any failures at home and abroad over the next couple of years on the Bush Administration, but I do not think they will find a willing audience. The country will look to the Democrats to solve problems, not explain why they cannot. As Bill Clinton found in the early 90s and George W. Bush found in this decade, sometimes one party governance is not all you hoped for.
For the Republicans it will be the wilderness years. The Party has gone into the wilderness before and emerged stronger. I believe it can happen again, but it will take some doing. Already the recriminations are starting. McCain team vs. Palin team. Moderates vs. conservatives. Social conservatives vs. social moderates. On it will go.
For Barack Obama, he becomes the 44th President of the United States. He will take office in a time of unprecedent uncertainty, domestic and international turmoil. He must demonstrate strength and confidence. If he blinks, he becomes Jimmy Carter.
For John McCain, a return to the United States Senate. I believe he will still have power in the Senate as the rational middleman between the two parties. He may even become an asset to President Obama in terms of confirmation of appointees and judges as well as certain legisltive priorities. The problem for McCain is that not many Republicans are likely to follow his lead on many issues. To them, he's yesterday. Like Bob Dole before him, we admire the person, thank him for his service and move on.
For Joe Biden it's trips to funerals and fundraisers. As he replaces the most influential vice president in our history (good or bad, no denying Cheney carried a lot of weight), he likely assumes a more traditional VP role. It does not appear that he is really close to Obama or part of the inner circle. He was not a particulary great asset in the campaign and he did not deliver any states or voting blocs critical to Obama's winning, so there is no debt there. Age seems to rule out another Biden candidacy in eight years, so he cannot even be considered the Democratic Party's heir apparent.
Finally, Sarah Palin. Personally I do not think we have heard the last of the Governor of Alaska. Some believe she is going to be consigned to William Miller status (quick, who was on the top of that ticket?), but I don't see it. If she can effectively govern her state and win re-election, I think she is in play for 2012. The media may not like the folksy charm, but the crowds seemed to respond to it. Her turn on Saturday Night Live demonstrated an ability to laugh at herself and not take herself to seriously.
Yet, she must get the voters to take her seriously. Continuing to speak out on energy issues seems to be a natural fit and she was quite comfortable with it during the campaign. She likely needs to do a few more Sunday talk shows and stay off of Saturday Night Live for awhile. I think those that underestimate her appeal and political skill do so at their own peril.
So American democracy marches in. A new Administration readies itself, a political party tries to find itself and it will all begin again before we know it.

Today is the Day

Election Day has finally arrived. It seems as though this campaign started the day after George Bush was re-elected in 2004. It has been particularly intense for two years, By any measure it has been the longest campaign in many decades, possibly ever. Today it ends.
When we take a step back, we realize it is an amazing process. No shots are fired. There are no riots in the streets. It is a peaceful transition of power. Next week we will see a picture of the incoming President shaking hands with the outgoing President. It will not matter which party wins, they will work together on the transition. The 43rd President will give way to the 44th in January and the republic will march on.
Once again, on Election Day, the true winners are the Founding Fathers. We may have hit some bumps along the way, but they got it right.

What Will They Do?

If Barack Obama is elected on Tuesday, there is one segment of the economy whose future I am very concerned about: liberal commentators and pseudo-journalists of the left.
Think about it: they have had a foil for eight years in George W. Bush. They could go on night after night and rail about the Iraq War, Katrina, and Gitmo. They mock his speech patterns and syntax. When they were done with him, they had Dick Cheney.
Will they mock Obama? Or will Keith Olbermann and Jon Stewart spend their shows like new parents with a brand new baby: adoring every move and every sound?
Will there be verbal slips by Obama that will be repackaged, cut up and taken out of context for comedy purposes or will they just be getting, as Chris Matthews said, a "tingle" down their leg whenever he speaks?
Will their be books suggesting sinister machinations behind the scenes at the White House from disgruntled staffers? Of course there will. Will those authors find themselves welcome to promote their books on The Daily Show, Countdown or Hardball or will they suddenly be authors whose credibility is to be questioned?
The left wing media has worked awfully hard for this moment. They trashed Hillary Clinton. John McCain used to be their favorite Republican until he emerged as Obama's opponent, then he stood in the way of the coronation so they trashed him. They can taste victory.
But what will they do when George W. is really gone?