Friday, November 7, 2008

Reality Setting In

It's over. Two years and a few hundred million dollars later, Barack Obama is the President-elect of the United States. The Democratic Party will have large majorities in the House and Senate.
I cannot say that I am surprised. I do not want to diminish the Democrats win, but I cannot help but think the country really fired the Republican Party.
So where does everyone go from here?
For the Democrats it will be absolute control. With absolute control will come accountability. I am sure there will be Democrats who will try to blame any failures at home and abroad over the next couple of years on the Bush Administration, but I do not think they will find a willing audience. The country will look to the Democrats to solve problems, not explain why they cannot. As Bill Clinton found in the early 90s and George W. Bush found in this decade, sometimes one party governance is not all you hoped for.
For the Republicans it will be the wilderness years. The Party has gone into the wilderness before and emerged stronger. I believe it can happen again, but it will take some doing. Already the recriminations are starting. McCain team vs. Palin team. Moderates vs. conservatives. Social conservatives vs. social moderates. On it will go.
For Barack Obama, he becomes the 44th President of the United States. He will take office in a time of unprecedent uncertainty, domestic and international turmoil. He must demonstrate strength and confidence. If he blinks, he becomes Jimmy Carter.
For John McCain, a return to the United States Senate. I believe he will still have power in the Senate as the rational middleman between the two parties. He may even become an asset to President Obama in terms of confirmation of appointees and judges as well as certain legisltive priorities. The problem for McCain is that not many Republicans are likely to follow his lead on many issues. To them, he's yesterday. Like Bob Dole before him, we admire the person, thank him for his service and move on.
For Joe Biden it's trips to funerals and fundraisers. As he replaces the most influential vice president in our history (good or bad, no denying Cheney carried a lot of weight), he likely assumes a more traditional VP role. It does not appear that he is really close to Obama or part of the inner circle. He was not a particulary great asset in the campaign and he did not deliver any states or voting blocs critical to Obama's winning, so there is no debt there. Age seems to rule out another Biden candidacy in eight years, so he cannot even be considered the Democratic Party's heir apparent.
Finally, Sarah Palin. Personally I do not think we have heard the last of the Governor of Alaska. Some believe she is going to be consigned to William Miller status (quick, who was on the top of that ticket?), but I don't see it. If she can effectively govern her state and win re-election, I think she is in play for 2012. The media may not like the folksy charm, but the crowds seemed to respond to it. Her turn on Saturday Night Live demonstrated an ability to laugh at herself and not take herself to seriously.
Yet, she must get the voters to take her seriously. Continuing to speak out on energy issues seems to be a natural fit and she was quite comfortable with it during the campaign. She likely needs to do a few more Sunday talk shows and stay off of Saturday Night Live for awhile. I think those that underestimate her appeal and political skill do so at their own peril.
So American democracy marches in. A new Administration readies itself, a political party tries to find itself and it will all begin again before we know it.

No comments: